Thursday, March 3, 2016 - Volume 7, Number 2

© Copyright 2016, The Ultrapolis Project.  All Rights Reserved.

The Bush &Wall Street Journal’s Lament

How the Republican ‘Establishment’ Gave Us Trump


·         Kasich’s Lament: From Obamacare to Gay Cakes, Charity by Force of Law

·         Our Big Miss on Trump: His Power Source in Plain Sight

·        Cartoons: Beeler/Margulies/Sack on Political Oscars, Republican Abortion, Christie Future







The Bush GOP Lament

Leaders: This Time it Will be Different!

Voters: You Don’t Know the Half of It


Look Back Just a Little Further


On Monday, February 22, (Tuesday, February 23, in print) Brett Stephens of the Wall Street Journal wrote a column sarcastically thanking the conservative talk show hosts and other conservatives who gave the leading Republican candidate for president, Donald J. Trump, a free pass for six months, thereby sinking the hapless campaign of former Florida governor John Ellis Bush (Jeb!) – and presumably with it the Republican Party’s prospects in 2016.


Well, congratulations, fellas. If your avowed purpose was to knock Jeb Bush out of the race, you’ve won. It must feel great.”


It's not so much that we disagree with what Mr. Stephens said.  It's that we take great exception to what he didn't say.  If it's true that social conservatives' initial tolerance of Trump opened a path for him into the nomination, it is even more true that the 'establishment' Republicans like Mr. Bush, with the avid help of Wall Street Journal's editorial board, created Trump's constituency.


The Illegal Elephant in the Room!


We here on the ground — that is, among the middle class ground that is more directly encountering the consequences of illegal immigration in daily life (which Peggy Noonan so eloquently described as the “un-protected class” in the Saturday edition of the Wall Street Journal) — were on public record a year ago (UWFR February 6, 2015) that Bush's candidacy would not do well because it did not understand how frustrated people had become with the illegal immigration problem (still doesn't).  Constantly told that being for legal immigration, but not illegal immigration, is the same as being racist and "anti-immigrant,” as supposed conservative David Brooks of the New York Times has implied on the PBS NewsHour, and as has the WSJ Editorial Board equally intimated on many occasions by refusing to make the distinction, has only convinced millions how completely deaf is half of the Republican Party to the other half.  


Yes, Let’s Do That Again


When Republicans have repeatedly been caught quietly voting in favor of taxpayer benefits and entitlements for illegal immigrants with citizenships in other countries as they did in Texas under Governor Rick Perry;


When the rank and file are advised by those Republicans that breaking into our home and demanding our property and labor be turned over (in taxes) against our will is "an act of love";


When Bush Republicans accuse others of racism and bigotry merely for insisting that someone ignoring our laws not get preference over those immigrants who dutifully and respectfully wait for years for their papers in American embassies around the world;


When they repeatedly lecture us all on the need to be tolerant because apparently we are not, despite the lack of evidence for their insulting insinuations;


And, when all this follows the Republicans' Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which legalized 3 million foreign nationals illegally in the U.S. with the promise to the American people that this would be a one-time act and the end of illegal immigration, yet where following its passing, illegal immigration exploded, so that in the two decades following we got more illegal immigration than in all of the previous 80 years, leaving us with four times as many immigrants here illegally as in 1986; THEN, after all of that, the Bush Republicans are surprised at the result we have today, and think talk radio is the problem.


Donald Trump didn't do all those things.  Rush Limbaugh didn't either. Neither did Mark Levine.  Mr. Stephen’s friends like Jeb Bush did all that.


A Missing Hall of Mirrors


For many in the GOP, Bush was nothing more (as stated in the Valley Forge Initiative’s Declaration) “than the same, simmering version of policies that will cook us slowly to death, instead of the full-steam antagonistic rule that, while initially worse, might cause us all to jump out of the boiling pot.”  Yes, Trump is awful.  But in a way, Jeb Bush kept communicating he might be the worst of all possible options, an option completely oblivious to, or just disdainful of, a significant portion of the American public - a patronizing smiling face to appease while he administers more of the same policies we have had for thirty years.


These Trump voters, many of them independents new to the Republican Party, may not know what they are getting with Mr. Trump, but they were sure what Gov. Bush and his friends were offering, and are doubly sure they want no more of it.  If it means rolling the dice and risking snake eyes, and perhaps losing the Republican Party as an institution, then so be it – they likely figure they had already lost it anyway. (See our related article in column 3 explaining further the Trump juggernaut).


Next time someone wants to take a good look at who gave Trump's candidacy its birth, they should call Rick Perry, David Brooks, the WSJ Editorial Board, and Jeb!, and all their like-minded friends, and invite them all for a visit to a hall of mirrors.


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Postscript - March 4, 2016:

In response to some comments on the above, we clarify that we do not say the Bush Republicans were solely responsible for Trump. We only blame them for their leading role in building its constituency.  In our last issue we explained how the left made a vulgar, trash-talking campaign like Trump’s viable.



Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review

Ultrapolis Project – ultrapolisproject.com



Editor: Marco Antonio Roberts

Copy Editor: Michael Alberts

Contributing Editors:

Mark Eastman

Mark Steele





Our forecast record cannot be beat.  One can follow the herd chasing the latest hyperbolic, melodramatic, and soon-forgotten micro-trend, or one can be wisely and judiciously in front of it with UWFR. 





Kasich’s Lament

From Obamacare to Gay Wedding Cakes, Christian Charity by Force of Law


The Flimsy Right to Say ‘No’


Last year Republican Ohio Governor and trailing presidential candidate John Kasich said that we are not good Christians if we do not expand Medicare under Obamacare, as if Jesus said that caring for the needy must be carried out through government by force of law. Now, based on his remarks made on Monday, February 22, at University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Governor Kasich says that Christian bakers ought bake wedding cakes upon demand for same-sex couples regardless of their personal objections - that is, to enter into a contract, whether they object to that contract on religious grounds or not.


As it turns out (though you would not know it from any mainstream media) many gay people, and many of the 62% of young Republicans under 30 who favor gay rights, do not think anyone should be forced to produce a product such as wedding cakes or wedding photos, because they do not equate this type of work to “public accommodations” as was understood by most people until recently. 


We should be clear, and so we say again, that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 for the last 52 years has never required anyone to produce a product or service, or enter into a contract to produce a product or service, that is artistic or expressive of an idea, or that requires knowledge of, and participation at some level, in someone’s else’s beliefs.  The Act is very specific for a reason.  Even if you added “gay” to the covered protected classes, the Civil Rights Act would still not apply because the Act is so specific in what is a public accommodation. 


A New Equality of Oppression


Never before the late 2000’s, not until new state and local laws were passed re-defining “public accommodations,” had people in the United States been told that the government will decide when a private business, even a self-employed person, can be forced into a contract it does not want to enter into to create a custom product. 


But, many people do want government to do exactly that, and are changing the original understanding of  “public accommodations” through newer state laws and city ordinances that greatly broaden its definition.


These new laws make it impossible for anyone in business for themselves - gay or straight, religious or not - from refusing a job they do not want, so long as someone has the cash. And, since at least 2010 there has been an attempt every year in Congress to pass a new federal law sweetly named the “Equality Act” that would override the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and prevent any city or state from affirming the individual right to say ‘no’.


Cash vs. Conscience


This could include forcing an atheist gay caterer to produce servings for the Family Research Council, or risk being sued for religious discrimination, or  – as has already happened in Denver– a city suing a gay bar for attempting to market to “masculine” men.  It could mean forcing a Jewish printer to print perfectly legal anti-Semitic propaganda from a militant Muslim organization.  But, of course, their aim is to outlaw any right to object to any concepts of “rights” as defined by the progressive left.  It is why in Houston’s failed Equal Rights Ordinance (H.E.R.O.) the law actually forbade the “expression of antipathy” towards any of its newly created rights/obligations.  Let us say this again:  It made an “expression” illegal.


We hear many defend this new approach by saying “all that should matter is that someone has the money.” As a society we used to admire people for refusing money in standing up for their beliefs, but these liberal progressives (and not a few Bush-type Republicans) now prefer that cash be king, and want that it alone can force people into work.


We prefer that our individual conscience be sovereign over our individual lives.


No Flip Switch for Power


This is not just about religious freedom (a common, but erroneous, and costly strategic concession by the social conservatives) - it's about freedom of conscience, and the right to own the product of your own hands and mind. Freedom requires tolerating choices we don't like, so that we retain the freedom to make our own. To put it in a “Twitter-sized” bite, there is a big difference between "leave me be,” and "you must do for me."


Unfortunately, too often people are seduced by the lure of having the heavy hand of the state, or even a dictator, to secure the results they want (Trump anyone?).  They always seem to forget that once the state can force the results they want, it can just as easily apply that force unto them. 


As for Governor Kasich, he was wrong on his justification for the Medicare expansion.


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Postscript - March 4, 2016:

In last night’s Republican presidential debate Governor Kasich walked back his remarks on gay weddings somewhat, modifying his stance to say that the path to tolerance is not through lawsuits.


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Our Big Miss on Trump

The Power Source of Trump’s Success Staring Us in the Face


Impotent Anti-Trump Talk Shows


For the last few weeks conservative talk radio show hosts across the country, including the alpha male of talk radio, have done their best to shake loose the firm grip Trump’s candidacy has so tightly bolted on to so many of their listeners’ voting hands at the primary ballot box.  They questioned Trump supporters over and over again, asking them to explain how they reconcile their values with the things Donald Trump has said in direct contradiction with those values.


In one of those calls on Tuesday, Rush Limbaugh, the self-styled “800-pound gorilla” of all radio programming, struggled with a caller who could not be budged from his support for Mr. Trump.  And then the caller said something that gave Mr. Limbaugh, and us, a new insight.


A Political Mutation


Before we get to that, here we have to admit that all our other forecasts aside, those on Trump have been off the mark.  While our forecasts on former Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Dr. Ben Carson, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (would be one of the top three candidates for the Republican nominations), and Florida Senator Marco Rubio (the man to watch, and would rise in the polls – and he has), have turned out to be accurate, our forecasts on Trump have not. 


As we said in our last issue, Trump’s candidacy has proved to be a “political…mutant”, a “wild card” that has upended some of our assumptions of the political landscape, leaving us scrambling to find the critical factor missing in our calculations.  Well, the caller speaking to Rush Limbaugh on Tuesday pointed to the factor we (and apparently Limbaugh and everyone else) had overlooked, even though we have spoken about that factor on these very pages in different contexts.


Voice Heard vs. Idea Silenced


It is the feeling of a substantial portion of the electorate that none of their values and beliefs are ever fairly presented, much less validated, in the media (discussed in our February 25, 2015, issue); AND that only Donald Trump has shown any ability to punch through the media firewall that has brought down all other candidates who have come close to giving voice at the national level to their long-standing frustrations (noted in our August 14, 2016 issue).  Even Texas U.S.  Senator Ted Cruz, they believe, cannot punch through this wall.


In their belief, no matter what Senator Cruz or any other Republican actually says, if what he or they say is not to the liking of the journalists*, TV comedians, or Hollywood entertainers (nearly all liberal progressives), the media narrative will successfully portray them as racist, misogynist, homophobic bigots, and will take them down.  Meanwhile they see that as much as this same media try the same thing on Trump, they have no effect, even in light of his most outrageous statements.


*Surveys over time have consistently showed that liberals outnumber conservatives by more than 3 to 1 in the newsroom.


This perception is at the core of the Trump phenomenon, and we have to concede, they have a point.


So, between a 100% sure-footed conservative that they believe will never be allowed the megaphone, and an erratic one who is all over the place, but at least seems to have his own megaphone, they are going for the latter.


A Changed Land


So, what’s next in the wake of Super Tuesday?  Mr. Trump won most states, Senator Cruz won his home state of Texas, and also Oklahoma and Alaska, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio won his first state, Minnesota.  Senator Rubio’s poll numbers have risen, but very late in the game.  Republican leaders have come out publicly against their party’s leading candidate.  Talk show hosts are fighting the party and their listeners.  The fierce Republican infighting is now an out-in-the-open, three-way, political civil war.


The Republican electorate has changed in the last six months in ways it has not in twenty years, and we are just now beginning to recognize how.  Thus, we are not ready to release a revised forecast at this time, though we are prepared to say now that we do suspect that every attack on Trump that comes seemingly from ‘the establishment’, be it the media or the GOP leadership, will only make the Trump campaign stronger.


Getting Ready to Blow


Tens of thousands of new voters are flooding into the Republican Party that do not share its pre-existing core values.  Hundreds of thousands within the active party are accepting or rejecting views that just six months ago would have seemed inconceivable, and to degrees not seen in several generations.


And, millions across the nation are now looking at a shinny gilded trumpet, discordant and crude yet almost magically powerful, maybe powerful enough to shatter the foundations of the order they have come to hate so much – and maybe able to shatter more than that; and they are picking it up, and bringing it up to their lips, and thinking that they just might put the full force of the wind from their lungs into it, to see what happens.


It’s not that they know that it will produce the exact sound they want, or intend; but they are thinking that at least its sound will be heard.


Let’s see what happens on March 15.


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Political Oscars of 2016 (1of 3)

Republican Reproductive Planning (2of 3)


Christie’s Trump Future (3of 3)




Main Index of the Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review



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