Thursday, October 15, 2015 - Volume 6, Number 12

© Copyright 2015, The Ultrapolis Project.  All Rights Reserved.

At First Debate Clinton Sees Clearer Path to Crown

Single Viable Opponent Sanders Helps Clear that Path

---

SPECIAL ELECTION 2016 ALERT & FORECAST NO. 3

ALSO IN THIS ISSUE:

· Cartoon Commentaries: Nate Beeler on Clinton Clean Wipes, plus Contrasting Red Lines

Clinton Hunting

for Secret Chinese Rooms

Sanders Fantasizes on

Putin

As Cooper Planned

Er, Predicted

The first Democratic presidential debate held by CNN on Tuesday night, and hosted by the erstwhile giggly Anderson Cooper in Las Vegas, revealed no surprises or upsets, and certainly did not match the drama and energy of the Republican debates.

This may be due to four main factors: 1) A field composed of mostly old white Anglo folks (in the news age of the “white Hispanic” we have to say this); 2) An apparent reluctance by the candidates to strongly challenge each other, as the host predicted; 3) Anderson Cooper’s announced approach to not pose questions that deliberately posit candidates against each other, and, of course; 4) No Trump.

Going into the Republican debates, you pretty much knew there were a number of candidates who were willing to [attack each other]…Some lower-level candidates wanted to punch up and try to make a name for themselves. That's not the case, so far as we've seen, on the Democratic side.

Anderson Cooper

CNN’s "Reliable Sources

Sunday, October 11

Whatever the reason, the Hillary apple cart remained crucially undisturbed.

Chafee Wobbles

Webb Chafes

Both marginal candidates, Former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, came across relatively awkward when compared to their debate partners. Governor Chafee seemed unsteady in his replies while Senator Webb answered in rational, but stiff tones often associated with old military men. When Governor Chafee was asked about his 1999 vote to repeal the Glass Steagall Act, an Act which many credit as a seed to the financial crisis of the aughts, he truly captured the look of a deer-in-the-headlights. If there were any doubts that their candidacies are going nowhere, this first debate should end those doubts.

O’Malley Romney

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley was a disappointment for us. While he positioned himself as “new leadership” to contrast himself with the rest of the Democratic field of sexa- and septuagenarians, his offered vision and rhetoric revealed nothing but the same Democratic solutions we have heard for decades. His poise seemed overly studied, a Democratic version of former Massachusetts Governor and past Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Governor O’Malley did interestingly point out his unusual success in fighting the National Rifle Association over gun control legislation, which actually should hold a lesson for all Democrats pondering how to deal with opponents who have no intention to concede a single inch (Iran, Hezbollah, North Korea, Islamofacists?), and for establishment-type Republicans who seem to think that apologies and ideological retreats equal reasoning and ultimate success. Otherwise, the governor provided no compelling reason for Democrats to favor him, save his scandal-free status; but as we shall note, that is not a consideration for most Democrats.

Sanders: Clinton’s

Rhetorical Superior

The far-left, self-styled ‘democratic socialist’ Senator of Vermont, not even an actual member of the Democratic Party, was far more natural and comfortable in his own white skin (if he was not of European descent, we might not actually be able to write that sentence legally in California). Even in the hall filled with an audience clearly partial to Secretary Hillary Clinton from the start, Senator Sanders managed to get the best audience reaction at key points in the debate where all candidates had an opportunity to speak, including the closing statement.

For example, when all candidates were asked how their presidency would differ from that of President Obama’s, Senator Sanders had the strongest and best response. We contrast it below with Mrs. Clinton’s answer.

See next column >

Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review

Ultrapolis Project – ultrapolisproject.com

832-782-7394

Editor: Scott Lund

Copy Editor: Michael Alberts

Contributing Editors:

Mark Eastman

Mark Steele

contactproject@ultrapolisproject.com

Our forecast record cannot be beat. One can follow the herd chasing the latest hyperbolic, melodramatic, and soon-forgotten micro-trend, or one can be wisely and judiciously in front of it with UWFR.

< From column 1 Political Revolution vs. First Woman President Senator Sanders’ reply: I have a lot of respect for president Obama. I have worked with him time and time again on many, many issues. But here’s where I do disagree. I believe that the power of corporate America, the power of Wall Street, the power of the drug companies, the power of the corporate media is so great that the only way we really transform America and do the things that the middle class and working class desperately need is through a political revolution when millions of people begin to come together and stand up and say: Our government is going to work for all of us, not just a handful of billionaires. Secretary Clinton’s reply: Well, I think that’s pretty obvious. I think being the first woman president would be quite a change from the presidents we’ve had up until this point, including President Obama. Mr. Cooper then asks for a little more: “Is there a policy difference?” Secretary Clinton’s 2^nd reply: Well, there’s a lot that I would like to do to build on the successes of President Obama, but also, as I’m laying out, to go beyond. And that’s in my economic plans, how I would deal with the prescription drug companies, how I would deal with college, how I would deal with a full range of issues that I’ve been talking about throughout this campaign to go further. Sanders on Regretful Putin Nonetheless, Senator Sanders is certainly an ideologue who sees the world as he wants to see it. Regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military actions, the senator said this: Well, I think he’s already regretting what he did in Crimea and what he is doing in the Ukraine. I think he is really regretting the decline of his economy. And I think what he is trying to do now is save some face. But I think when Russians get killed in Syria and when he gets bogged down, I think the Russian people are going to give him a message that maybe they should come home, maybe they should start working with the United States to rectify the situation now. As Mr. Cooper had just suggested to Senator Sanders, President Putin “doesn’t seem to be the type of guy to regret a lot.” Mr. Putin’s military adventures go back twenty years, and include the horrific obliteration of the Chechen Republic, the partial occupation of Georgia, the invasion of Ukrainian territory, and now the open attack of America’s allies in Syria. Fortunately, the Senator’s happy delusions about the conscience of the likes of Vladimir Putin have zero chance of making it to the White House. Back to Clinton Future So, we are back to Mrs. Hillary Clinton, who, as she said is “still standing.” Yes, she is, and Tuesday night went a long way to keep her that way. Her biggest and most effective challenger, Senator Sanders, largely avoided direct attacks on her. You had to know that when he was railing against billionaires and Wall Street, he included her, but he never said so openly, instead only calling her naïve. But, neither he, nor anyone else in this country actually sees Mrs. Clinton as naïve. If anything, Mr. Sanders helped Mrs. Clinton by harshly criticizing the attention on the email scandal, to strong applause from the Democratic audience. Governor Chafee, when asked to follow up on his previous statements on the email scandal, offered a timid defense: “Credibility is an issue.” No Mr. Chafee, it is not when it comes to the Clintons. It never has, and never will be, and the Democratic audience made that clear. When asked to respond to Mr. Chafee’s statement, Mrs. Clinton simply and emphatically said, “no!” to thunderous applause. The emphatic audience reaction effectively ended any further questions from any Democrat on this issue. The same is true of the Benghazi disaster. Continued column 3 >

< From column 2 Clinton Tales Talking about credibility and how far a Clinton can stretch it, Mrs. Clinton’s various name-dropping personal anecdotes on what she said to whom were downright comical, and called to mind her imaginary story of landing in Bosnia under sniper fire. We actually started to look forward to her next little vignette on her heroic advocacy of women, the downtrodden, or climate change: …And I went to Wall Street in December of 2007 — before the big crash that we had — and I basically said, “cut it out! Quit foreclosing on homes! Quit engaging in these kinds of speculative behaviors.” Yes, of course you did, no doubt with absolute confidence in the value of such a visit and those words. Too bad they did not listen. Our favorite was this one: When we met in Copenhagen in 2009 and, literally, President Obama and I were hunting for the Chinese, going throughout this huge convention center, because we knew we had to get them to agree to something. Because there will be no effective efforts against climate change unless China and India join with the rest of the world. They told us they’d left for the airport; we found out they were having a secret meeting. We marched up, we broke in, we said, “We’ve been looking all over for you. Let’s sit down and talk about what we need to do.” And we did come up with the first international agreement that China has signed. Yes, it happened just like that. We can just imagine the Secretary, with the President in tow, “literally” as she said, traipsing about the halls, searching from room to room at a Danish convention center for Chinese-looking emissaries meeting in secret (we guess that’s not too hard in Denmark), then barging into the room with “We’ve been looking all over for you. Let’s sit down and talk about what we need to do.” At least this time she had the decency to leave out the sniper fire. Of Enemies & Clinton True, Hillary Rodham Clinton showed herself Tuesday night to be well prepared, and very presentable. No other Democratic candidate, except the one who is unelectable as a democratic socialist, was an equal to her in her ability to provoke audience approval, and she was equally unequaled in her ability to sidestep troublesome questions, as cleverly noted by Frank Scheck of the Hollywood Reporter [worth the read for a more amusing (if left-leaning) review of the night’s proceedings]: Working a dozen variations on the "I was for it before I was against it" theme, she seemed perpetually ready to sing "The Sidestep" number from The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas. Toward the end of the evening, when the candidates were asked which one of their enemies they were most proud of, it seemed fitting that she was the only one who had trouble deciding. Indeed, she did and she was. And, may we remind our readers, many of those enemies are actually insider Democrats who must now be quaking in their boots knowing full well that if they oppose her openly – or already have, and she wins, there will be retribution. Perception Recharge The effect of this first debate will be to clear the Democratic path forward for Mrs. Clinton. Vice-President Joe Biden, if he had any hesitations about joining the race, will now have those in spades, while Senator Sanders, the only Democratic candidate with the ability to strongly criticize or question Mrs. Clinton before she gets to the nomination, has made clear he will not do so. Hillary Clinton’s power has always stemmed from the perception of her inevitability. After months of being drained, much of that power has just been restored. But while this may put her back on a straight path to the Democratic nomination, what does it mean for her path to the White House? Absolutely nothing. Comments may be directed to contactproject@ultrapolisproject.com, or if you receive the newsletter email, also via a reply to the email address from which you receive it. OR CLICK BELOW

Hillary’s Clean Wipes (1 of 2)

Contrasting Red Lines (2 of 2)

Main Index of the Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review

© Copyright 2015, The Ultrapolis Project – All Rights Reserved.