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Monday, November 10,
2014 - Volume 5, Number 11 © Copyright 2014,
The Ultrapolis Project. All Rights
Reserved. The Next Two Years:
Compromise or More Gridlock? The Reality of the Polarization of America & The Role of
For-Profit Punditry & Social Media ALSO IN THIS ISSUE: ·
Of Houston Sermons & Subpoenas: The
Salient Facts ·
Ultrapolis Reader Panel Votes and Comments on
Paul Ryan Forecast ·
The 2014 Election in Cartoons, by Steve Sack,
Rick McKee, and Steve Greenberg |
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Compromise or Gridlock? The Effect of the Polarizing Race for Ratings, Views, and
Comments Forecasts for 2014
Mostly Correct So, the Republicans
won in 2014, just as we predicted nearly a year ago in our UWFR issue of November 27, 2013. We also said it would be by a closer
margin than in 2010, but that has not been as true. True, fewer gains were made in the House of
Representatives (gain of 63 seats in 2010, versus at least nine as of this
writing (14 still outstanding), and the governorship gains will be less than
the six of 2010, making our prediction correct on the raw numbers. But, on a broader scope there have been
gains in 2014 over 2010, particularly when considering the gains in the
Senate and the larger overall numbers in the both houses of Congress, and the
Governorships, due to the higher starting point of the Republicans this time
around. A year ago we also
forecast that the government shutdown would, 1) not accomplish its goal,
destined instead to end with a small concession to the Republicans; and, 2)
Would not harm the GOP in 2014. Both
these developments may now seem plain in hindsight. But, at the time, many established venues
far more prominent than ours were far less certain than our unambiguous and
correct forecasts on either of these items; and on the latter, if they
suggested anything at all, it was usually the contrary. Government Shutdown
2014 Non-Effect Not as
Plain to Others Back then The Washington Post wondered how badly
the GOP would be hurt in 2014 in their article “Democrats
See GOP Shutdown Threat as Opening for 2014 Election Gains”. CNN equally pondered the question in “Republican
Shutdown Pain May Boost Dems in 2014”.
ABC News coyly poised the question
in “Will
Government Shutdown Hurt House Republicans Hoping to Get to the Senate?”
as it clearly suggested the answer could be ‘yes’ (of course, it turned out
to be a big, fat ‘no!’ with a six-seat GOP gain in the Senate). The Guardian, being British, was more
wisely circumspect, careful not to answer either way in “If
the Shutdown Didn't Hurt Republicans Now, What About the 2014 Midterms?”. On the other hand, back in the U.S., the
more partisan, pro-Republican, The
Weekly Standard got it right in “8
Reasons the Shutdown Won’t Hurt Republicans”. Ultrapolis is the only non-partisan
political forecaster that got it right (non-partisan, after all, we did
forecast Barack Obama’s re-election two years in advance, in the wake of the
huge GOP victories in 2010, and in opposition to every pro-Republican
publication). New Bi-Partisanship
Around the Corner? On Wednesday,
November 5, the day after the electoral earthquake, the President conducted
his first press conference in months.
The questions from the reporters were tough, even from traditionally
more sympathetic outlets like CBS and CNN.
One question came back many times in different forms: What is going to change that will enhance
prospects for compromise and the breaking of legislative gridlock in
Washington? The answer was - between
the lines - nothing. The same question
was put to the new Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress, which they
answered in interviews and more fully in an editorial piece published in the Wall Street Journal titled “Now
We Can Get Congress Going”.
Setting aside the obvious difference of their new circumstances of
power, their answer also was - outside of limited issues, and yet more openly
- the same. Of course, both
sides said what they know the public wants to hear; that they would “seek
common ground” and look to “work together” for the good of the country. What the inattentive voter does not
realize, is that there is very little of that ground where the two sides can
work together, and it is the voters who are primarily responsible for that. Americans
of Two Minds These pages have
often noted, as various studies have shown, that there has long been a
measurable, growing polarization of the U.S. Congress, which has merely
reflected the very real growing polarization of the American electorate
itself. When a typical voter say she
wants her elected leaders to “work together”, while no doubt entirely sincere
in her sentiment while uttering those words, in practice she often also
means, “to do what I want.” And with
an electorate more widely split on what it wants, it becomes almost
impossible for the elected leaders to find room for any compromise that will
not get them thrown out of office at the next election. This reality of the
electorate will amplify many elements that will make any compromise difficult
in the next two years, in particular: 1-Real ideological
differences between President Obama and the Republicans. The President in particular, with no
re-election prospects, will be more focused on his sincere belief in his
ideological legacy than on Democratic Party campaign considerations. His prompt declaration just hours after the
polls closed that he would continue to pursue executive action in lieu of
Congressional action signaled clearly his unwavering intentions. He had to know this would enrage the
Republicans even before the electoral dust settled. Clearly, he did not care. 2-The most active
voters of the Republican Party were motivated by an anti-compromise,
anti-Obama message. The Republican
Party cannot now ignore their expectations, which will be fanned by
conservative talk radio shows, even if many of its wiser leaders understand
the risks of failure to deliver some semblance of accomplishments prior to
2016. Images of GOP victory
celebrations amid prominent “Stop Obama” and “Repeal Obamacare” signs
similarly signaled the extent common ground is to be sought. 3-In American
politics, compromise and cooperation can backfire, as George Bush senior
learned in 1992.
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The Need for Compromise
The Semantics of 2014
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Main Index of the Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review © Copyright 2014, The Ultrapolis Project – All Rights
Reserved.
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