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Friday, October 12,
2012 - Volume 3, Number 12 © Copyright 2012, The Ultrapolis Project. All Rights Reserved.
Vice Presidential Debate
Plays Out as Forecast Ryan Abortion Policy Answer Will Hurt, While Social
Media Amplifies First Impressions What Obama
and Ryan Have in Common: Sincerity of Belief As we said yesterday in future
tense (UWFR October 11), we
now say in the past tense: alas! The Obama campaign has not completely gone
off the rails and fallen into a twilight zone vortex of incompetency; and the
august Democratic vice-presidential candidate Joe Biden not only held his own
against the earnest Republican candidate Paul Ryan, in some ways he even
bested Ryan. True, conservative
sympathizers are highlighting how disrespectful and unpleasant Vice-President
Biden was with Rep. Ryan – and he was so to a degree we have not seen before
in other debates. But, even as some
independents and all Republicans will be disgusted by Biden’s visual displays
of contempt and rude interruptions, it won’t hurt the Democrats when it comes
to turning around the declining perception of vigor and strength in the Obama
campaign. Frankly, we think Biden
would have done better with independents (and would have been a better man)
without the rudeness, but it won’t matter all that much when it comes to the
votes. Paul Ryan did well, but some
commentators pointed out what we said yesterday: namely that as able and
knowledgeable as Ryan is, his lack of experience left him a little green for
this debate. To be fair, Ryan also had
the difficult task of not appearing too disrespectful of the vice-president
of the United States, or in any way feeding the perception of ‘meanness’
stereotypically associated with pro-business Republicans, while the
vice-president shamelessly took complete advantage of the required
deference. Ryan finally did
energetically protest, as he had to, and managed to get some respite from
Biden’s continuous interruptions.
Nonetheless, Biden continued to succeed in taking the edge off some of
Ryan’s sharper points, as excellent Ryan arguments got lost or muddled in the
interruptions. Biden’s performance was
not all diversionary tactics. He did
score some points in focusing attention on some real weaknesses in the
Romney-Ryan positions on taxes (e.g., what loopholes can you close that will
make up for the tax cuts, but don’t affect the middle class, or what would
Romney actually do differently in Syria).
Ryan appeared to get one good
zinger at Biden when he indirectly addressed the Romney quote on the 47% who
don’t pay income taxes when he said, “And with respect to that quote, I think
the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don’t come out of
your mouth the right way.” The
audience laughed. Unfortunately for
Ryan, Biden deftly and immediately diminished its effectiveness by shooting
right back “But I always say what I mean. . . And so does Romney.” (If you think about this retort, it
actually should be damaging to Biden, but it wasn’t, and won’t be.) All in all, the debate won’t
sway votes, except in possibly one way: independent women voters. When Ryan was asked if women wanting to
keep their current abortion rights had anything to fear from what a Romney
administration would do regarding abortion rights, Ryan did not give the answer
the Romney campaign would have wanted.
On our Twitter handle Ultrapolis last
night we predicted that Ryan’s pause will give pause to independent women
voters who highly prize abortion rights and free birth control. Ryan was visibly sincere, and could not
make himself say anything that he did not believe. Obama, we think, had a similar problem,
save for the fact that he already knows what he can’t do, and Ryan still
doesn’t. In the harsh and brutish
world of real politics, you often have to say things you don’t want to, or
you will lose. In the long run, beyond 2012,
the congressman from Wisconsin will win. New World
of Blurts Over Essays On social media, Christina Ballantino, the political editor for PBS’ NewsHour
reported a Pew poll found that 11% of those watching the debates were
accessing a second screen, in order to read and or post on social media. (That people cannot be typing commentary
without missing what else is being said while they type seems to escape
many.) Note was made of how millions last week were posting that Obama
appeared to have lost the debate even as the debate had yet to finish. This adds weight to our suggestion in our October 9 UWFR that
social media may be amplifying initial perceptions beyond what they would be
without an onslaught of online snippets reinforcing the first view to gain
traction. Our concern with this is
that by definition, this phenomenon will give advantage to the instant,
off-the-cough, by-definition unconsidered blurts, and will drown out
considered and reflective expressions that by their very nature take more
time.
Comments may be
directed to contactproject@ultrapolisproject.com,
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Main Index of the Ultrapolis World Forecast & Review © Copyright 2012, The
Ultrapolis Project – All Rights Reserved.
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